What Brazil's History Can Teach Us About Trump's Return (Issue #78)
Finding hope around the globe as we brace for four more years of Trump.
Hi friends!
Since November 5th, each day has brought a new wave of intense emotions. I shared my initial reactions last week—a mix of grief, reflection on how we ended up here, and frustration with the Democrats. But as more time has passed and new insights have emerged, I’ve felt a growing sense of fatalism. Was it ever possible to beat Trump? Was a Democratic loss inevitable?
This Financial Times article certainly makes it feel that way. In it, John Burn-Murdoch suggests that while some failures in the Democratic party may have contributed to Harris’ loss, the full picture is perhaps more bleak. Because across the globe, incumbent governments are losing elections. And there’s data to back it up:
For the first time in nearly 120 years, governing parties in major elections worldwide have lost support across the board — a clear signal of just how turbulent this era is for incumbents everywhere.
It’s hard to see data like this and not feel like we were doomed from the start. And yet, I’m working hard to shift my perspective. I know the dangers of fatalist thinking. It’s paralyzing. It motivates and justifies inaction. It stunts imagination and stifles the tangible progress we could and should be focusing on. That’s not to say the grief and fear many feel isn’t real. It absolutely is, and that deserves time and space for processing.
Still, as we look forward, I want to focus on how to make the most of this next stage. How can we maximize the opportunities that remain? No matter the threat Trump poses – to Democracy, to immigrants, to the economy, to Black communities, to the LGBTQ+ community – there is still opportunity here.
To help me find hope through my grief, anger, fear, and frustration, I’m looking outward for guidance. When have things felt this frightening before? And what happened in those moments?
And these questions are what led me to learn as much as possible about Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Called “Lula” for short, he’s the current president of Brazil, but his story actually spans back decades. You can read Lula’s full backstory here, but for today’s edition of Sincerely, Celisia, I’ll stick to the highlights.
Much of Lula’s rise to popularity stems from his connection to the working class. He was a metal worker, a union leader, and a fierce advocate of workers’ rights and socialist reform. In 1980, he helped found the Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers’ Party, or PT).
Peter Taylor writing for Current Affairs explains what happened next:
As Brazil transitioned from dictatorship to democracy throughout the early 1980s, the [Workers’ Party] gained crucial ballot access, allowing Lula to run for office several times throughout the ’80s and ’90s. He was elected to the National Congress in 1986 and ran three unsuccessful campaigns for the Brazilian presidency: in 1989, 1994, and 1998. As both a member of Congress and a presidential candidate, Lula advocated numerous political positions that were viewed as radical: demanding the right to strike, minimum wage hikes, paid parental leave, the nationalization of the country’s considerable natural assets (including its oil and mineral reserves), and agrarian reform. The latter was particularly radical in a country where the vast majority of land is in the hands of a small number of latifundiários (large-scale landowners). Ironically given his radical positions, it was also during this period in which Lula first gained his reputation as a skilled negotiator, someone who could work with politicians across the spectrum.
Finally, in 2002, Lula succeeded in his fourth presidential bid. During his presidency, he launched the bolsa família, a family stipend that gave direct cash assistance to families in need, estimated to have helped lift more than 40 million Brazilians out of extreme poverty during Lula's two terms in office. When he left office in 2010, Lula’s approval rating had reached an astounding 80 percent, making him one of the most popular leaders in Brazilian history.
So, by now, you’re probably scratching your head – All this Lula business sounds intriguing, but it’s still worlds apart from what’s happening in the U.S. How is this supposed to make me feel better about Trump winning the presidency?
The answer takes us back to 2014 when Lula found himself among a number of Workers’ Party politicians accused in a massive corruption scandal. He maintained his innocence, and many supporters saw it as a politically motivated attack. Nonetheless, Lula was sentenced to 12 years in prison. The Workers’ Party was losing power in Brazil, and a far-right political movement quickly gained momentum.
But none of this stopped Lula from running for president in 2018. His opponent, Jair Bolsonaro, was a far-right nationalist and former army captain who regularly praised Brazil’s past military dictatorship and called for its return. Bolsonaro’s politics were the polar opposite of Lula’s, and his rise on the global stage during Trump’s presidency earned him the nickname “Trump of the Tropics,” which should give you a pretty good idea of the type of candidate he was.
During this election, Lula was literally in jail. Despite this, he remained a front-runner until an electoral court banned him from the race. Lula was quickly replaced by another member of the Workers’ Party who, running on a shortened timeline without the same recognition or popularity, eventually lost. Bolsonaro won the presidency, and Lula remained in jail — a situation that feels eerily similar to what we’re facing now. Just like Bolsonaro’s victory, Trump’s presidency comes on the heels of more than 100 threats to punish and prosecute his political enemies. Whether he makes good on those threats remains to be seen, but it’s still terrifying to consider.
Now, for the hopeful part. No matter how dark Brazil’s future seemed in 2018, by 2021, the political tides had shifted yet again. Lula’s convictions were annulled, and he was released from prison! He ran for president once more and defeated Bolsonaro. Of course, direct comparisons between countries with different histories and political systems can never be perfect. And yet, I found comfort in the similarities. In many ways, Lula endured what I would consider a worst-case scenario—and now he’s on the other side of it. And perhaps most importantly, it’s likely that none of this seemed even remotely possible when Bolsonaro was first elected.
Now, Bolsonaro isn’t gone for good. He’s eyeing a 2026 run, and Trump’s win has given his campaign new energy. Fascism doesn’t go away overnight (if it ever truly can), so the struggle continues. But it’s all a reminder that change happens over time. We’ve always had moments that feel like exponential progress and moments that feel like apocalyptic backslides. This isn’t me trying to inject optimism into an admittedly dire situation. Still, as Mariame Kaba says, “Hope is a discipline,” and I’m committed to doing what I can to keep struggling and demanding more for all of us. A better world is possible, and maybe this is a push meant to catapult us toward that future, though, of course, I wish we didn’t have to live through another four years of Trump to find out. Sending love to you wherever you are.
A round-up of things to watch, read, and listen to as you head into the weekend.
The Run-Up Podcast: One Voter to Understand Trump’s Win (gift link)
Through an insightful interview with one Trump voter in Michigan, this episode paints a picture of why millions of people nationwide decided to invest in a second Trump presidency.
Substack: How the Tradwife Fantasy Delivered Women to Trump from
byThis is a great piece about the rise of the Tradwife and how it’s become a powerful tool of conservative political persuasion. I especially loved how
highlighted the movement's contradictions: “They claim to respect motherhood. They claim to help foster community and belonging. They are also the ones blocking paid leave, the child tax credit and more - creating the conditions that drive women into despair.”
The Daily Podcast: Why Abortion Rights Won Even as Kamala Harris Lost (gift link)
A great companion to the Tradwife article, this episode examines why many abortion ballot initiatives succeeded despite Harris’ loss.
Movie: Nickel Boys
Based on the Colson Whitehead book of the same name, early rumblings predict this film will be a new American classic. Shot in first-person point-of-view with a 1.33:1 aspect ratio, the cinematography is unique and gorgeous. I’m really excited to see it once it gets a wide release this December.
ABC News: At least 20 new species identified in recently discovered underwater ecosystem by Julia Jacobo
Through new deep-sea exploration technology, scientists have discovered and begun exploring the Nazca Ridge, “a new seamount in international waters about 900 miles off the coast of Chile in the Southeastern Pacific.” The underwater mountain is home to many newly discovered species, which include these two *stunning* beauties:
Things to try + share in the group chat.
Last month, I went to The Moth Twin Cities GrandSLAM Championship and *loved* it! If you’re unfamiliar, The Moth is a competitive storytelling event where participants share their experiences in captivating and engaging ways. The GrandSLAM brings together past StorySLAM winners, so the quality was exceptionally good. What’s great about The Moth is that anyone can attend a StorySLAM and even throw their name in to share a story that night. You can find Moth storytelling events in your area through their great search tool here, and learn how to perform your own story at a slam here.
Speaking of The Moth, a friend of my parents recommended the book *Engage, Teach, Persuade, and Change Your Life Through the Power of Storytelling by 5-time Moth GrandSLAM Champion Matthew Dicks. The book advocates for the value of storytelling and gives concrete tips on how to use it for good in your own life.
Take care of yourselves, and have a great weekend!
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